Given the unprecedented changes in the world right now—politically, economically, socially and medically—it’s tough to predict the future, really tough. Though it helps if we start with known quantities. Even then, our window to the future can only be so clear. Ask any meteorologist. The longer the forecast period, the more likely it is that unforeseen events will emerge to change the essence of what we know, or rather, what we thought we knew.
In November of 2008 I was sitting in a press conference the night before the National Business Aviation Association as a big aviation company presented its annual forecast about sales of turbine business aircraft over the next year, 10 years and 20 years. It’s interesting stuff only to aviation wonks, which I am, but that year, it was simply bizarre.